Predicting Future Energy Requirements of Punjab (Pakistan) Agriculture Sector Using Leap Model

This study presents analysis of the current status of energy demand of agriculture sector of Punjab, which is associated with agricultural inputs and farm operations. It also included past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future energy demand. A computer based software called Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used to estimate total energy demand of agriculture sector for the base year 2000 and extrapolate till 2030 for the future predictions. All available energy consumption data have been collected and input in to the model to develop scenarios. Initially, a reference scenario was created based on the current energy situation. It is “Business-as-usual” scenario and two alternative scenarios (Moderate improvement and Accelerated growth scenario) were formulated to predict future energy demand of agriculture sector of Punjab. The calculations showed that energy demand of agriculture sector of Punjab in moderate improvement scenario and accelerated growth scenario would increase from 4.28% and 10.7% in 2010 to 23.8% and 52.3% in 2030 respectively. Sustainable agricultural practices could be used to meet the accelerated growth targets with reduced energy demand.